NOT even halfway through the home and away season, the possibilities for the top eight are as limited as the choice of French champagnes in a country pub.

St Kilda's easy win over serially lamentable Melbourne yesterday kept the ninth-placed Saints in the hunt. The Port Adelaide fire still flickers after a tough win over Fremantle last night. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton is showing more signs of a sudden revival than the next seven.

Again, the AFL's weapons of mass mediocrity - the draft and salary cap - are failing to produce the promised egalitarian utopia - the edge-of-your-seat competition in which every team is within equal distance of a premiership flag and a wooden spoon. Instead, as the season wears on, the vast gap between the ability and motivation of the contenders and pretenders is reflected in the growing margins.

Over the weekend, Collingwood beat West Coast by 100, Sydney beat Richmond by 82, St Kilda beat Melbourne by 79, and Geelong beat Carlton by 56.

The smart coaches among the winners will look for the small flaws - the missed tackle, the wrong option - rather than revelling in highlights tapes that provide false testimony. The losers will already be wondering whether it is time to build for next year, perhaps via what could be the last uncompromised draft for at least two years because of the two new franchises.

The fascination now is the long series of head-to-head battles that will determine the top four places - although, already, there is a chance three of the top four spots have been filled. Having lost just once each in 10 games, Geelong, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs have built strong platforms.

The Bulldogs continue to defy expectations of an imminent fall. The fact they had 31 shots to the previously undefeated Hawks' 14 indicates they did not merely beat Hawthorn (by 32 points), they beat them up. Even if the Hawks, without several prime movers including Luke Hodge and Shane Crawford, were ripe for a loss.

On Saturday, against Essendon, expect the Hawks to rebound as hard as Geelong from their initial defeat. The Cats' inspiration against Carlton was Tom Lonergan, the young forward who lost a kidney in a shocking collision late in the 2006 season and returned to play his first game on Saturday night. But two other factors loomed larger - the successful return of ruckman Brad Ottens and full-back Matthew Scarlett's tight checking role on Carlton full-forward Brendan Fevola.

Adelaide's nervy five-point victory over struggling Essendon following an upset loss at West Coast suggests their grip on the top four is weakening. Sydney, Collingwood and Brisbane will watch like vultures when the Crows host Hawthorn in two weeks. It will be a moment of truth for a disciplined but sometimes uninspired team.

Sydney and Collingwood built momentum and percentage with massive victories but, against abject opposition, did not startle. Brisbane won more admirers with an impressive victory over the tenacious North Melbourne. The Lions' next big test comes in a fortnight at the Telstra Dome against the Bulldogs. Are their big forwards, Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw, the keys to unexpectedly early revival for the 2001-2003 premiers? Or are the Lions just hometown bullies?

St Kilda responded to coach Ross Lyons's browbeating. Last week he called his players' efforts soft. This week they had a harder edge. But the Demons are marshmallow while next week's opponents, the Bulldogs, are becoming granite. We should find out then if the Saints are merely vying for a minor role in September or have greater pretensions.

For almost everyone else, a major role in October - at the AFL's national draft - is more likely. That means: one, more speculation about tanking, even with the possibility of priority picks removed this season by rules which assess chronic poor performance over two seasons; and two, exciting prospects such as Daniel Rich and Nicholas Natanui will become household names before they have walked through a club room door.

That West Coast could lose to Collingwood by 100 points with 13 premiership players and some promising kids in their line-up will create suspicion the cue has been put in the rack. Are the Eagles merely sapped of class and confidence by their off-field problems and the defection of Chris Judd? Or are they deliberately bottoming out?

West Coast host their once fierce rivals Sydney on Saturday night. That game might give some indication of whether they are willing to put aside pride to hasten a convenient fall.