FACED with a choice of Gary Ablett or Lance Franklin, who would you pick for your club? If you chose Ablett, one can presume that you would also select Chris Judd ahead of Jonathan Brown, and, come the draft, you might prefer Daniel Rich to Jack Watts.

If you picked Ablett and Judd, there's a strong possibility that you think $700,000 a year is too much for Brendan Fevola, and perhaps reckon the Blues should sell their high-maintenance spearhead while he'll still bring a reasonable return.

Today, a number of clubs are pondering a deeper question that has major ramifications for Fevola's contract — the choice between the premier players in the draft. It is a question that Collingwood should resolve before seriously contemplating a tilt at Jonathan Brown.

It's football's answer to blondes versus brunettes, and it's a poser that the Western Bulldogs have more or less answered in their recruiting choices. Brownlow guests prefer blondes, the Bulldogs prefer midfielders. They think they can win a flag without a premier key forward.

The question, as you would have gathered, is whether a power forward, such as Fevola, Brown or Franklin, is more valuable than an elite midfielder.

Whereas historically, it has been accepted that key-position forwards have been more keenly sought, the prevailing winds increasingly blow in the other direction, against Jack Dyer's maxim that "a good big man will always beat a good small man". Carlton would be foolish not to investigate the midfielder v key forward question before it forks out $2 million to Fev over three years. For, provided they find a defence, the Blues are one club that could conceivably win a premiership (in time) without a gun power forward, a feat that only West Coast (2006), Adelaide (1997-98) and arguably Geelong have managed over the past dozen seasons.

Is Cameron Mooney a gun? The evidence suggests he's good rather than great. The Cats, you see, put the ball inside their forward 50-metre arc an average of 11.5 times more than their opposition. Mooney, who had his career year in a dominant team, would not be so fearsome at Melbourne, which concedes more than 14 forward entries than its opposition.

Ask Quinten Lynch whether midfielders matter more. Lynch booted 65 goals for the Eagles in their 2006 premiership, when Judd, Ben Cousins and Daniel Kerr ensured that the ball was (a) kicked in his vicinity often and (b) kicked to his advantage. Lynch has been rendered impotent in 2008.

The inside 50 entries ladder is almost the same as the premiership ladder — Geelong on top, easily, Hawthorn, the Bulldogs and Collingwood rounding out the top four; Port, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast, Essendon and Melbourne fill the bottom six spots for what is technically known as the "inside 50s differential".

Richmond booted 24 goals last Sunday — admittedly against shameful "opposition" — without Matthew Richardson. They put the ball inside their forward 50 arc and the goals flowed. The Lions' super forward duo of Brown and Daniel Bradshaw have shared nine goals against both Melbourne and Essendon and Brisbane still came up short because Simon Black's productivity was down.

With a midfield of Judd, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Nick Stevens, the Blues can aspire to the West Coast 2006, Bulldogs 2008 or contemporary Geelong models where a super midfield compensates for pedestrian key forwards. Unfortunately, they can only guess how they would fare without Fev.

Under the constraints of draft and salary cap, clubs must decide how best to allocate the finite resources of draft picks and dollars. Do you spend $700,000 on a key forward, who might boot 80-90 goals, or is that investment better spent on say, $450,000 for a prime midfielder and $250,000 on Paul Medhurst, who is on track for a 60-goal season?

This is not to say that key forwards are unimportant. Certainly, it's better to have a good one than kick to an immobile spud. West Coast would have won two flags with a decent target. The draft's past suggests, too, that most quality power forwards are either premium picks or fortuitous father-sons.

They're preferred, perhaps not essential, provided the midfield keeps pumping it forward, the defence is strong, someone provides a contest and there's some mid-sized goalkickers of Steve Johnson's ilk. And, as Carlton would know, you can never rely on one player to kick 35% of your score.