THIS season, before a ball was kicked in anger, three of this paper's so-called "football experts", Nathan Buckley, Michael Voss and yours truly, all picked St Kilda to play off in this year's grand final.

Now, the season is still less than half over, but it appears we got it terribly wrong. Why is it so, we must ask ourselves? Why did we feel so optimistic about the Saints' fortunes, and why does it appear they will struggle to make the finals, let alone the grand final?

While St Kilda finished just outside the eight last year, it was in the second half of the season the third-best performed team with 7½ wins. That was encouraging. It takes at least a year for a new coach to settle into a club and assess the on and off-field personnel. Ross Lyon did this and made several changes. In came a new football manager and fitness/medical team. All that was good.

At board level, there were changes. Long-standing president Rod Butterss stepped aside for Greg Westaway. You sensed that that would settle the place. Continual spats between Butterss and former coach Grant Thomas had become selfish, tiresome and distracting.

A decision was also made to appoint one captain. In 2007, Luke Ball, Lenny Hayes and Nick Riewoldt shared the leadership. I like the idea of showing faith and confidence in one man to do the job. The Saints chose Riewoldt over Hayes, mainly because he is their best player, has matured significantly and has a huge profile. Nevertheless, Hayes would have been an outstanding captain and continues to lead, in any case. Allowing Ball to concentrate on picking up a diminishing career (which, by the way, he is) was also a good decision.

In the off-season, the Saints got busy, bringing in two young premierships players from Sydney. Adam Schneider and Sean Dempster were still just 23 when they signed with the Saints. Joining them was 2007 premiership ruckman Steven King. The former Cat captain was in good form in the grand final and, along with Michael Gardiner, another former premiership ruckman from West Coast, I felt the two could make a formidable ruck combination, and therefore help in an area where the Saints have struggled for years.

Fraser Gehrig had also decided to come out of a short retirement. That would be a positive as the big fella had come eighth in the best-and-fairest in 2007 and had led his club's goalkicking with 59 majors, and coming back from serious injury would be key players in Brendon Goddard (seven games in 2007), Matt Maguire (10) and Max Hudghton (10). With these three back in defence, dashers in Jason Gram and Sam Fisher would be the icing on the cake. Winning the pre-season NAB Cup made everyone feel the Saints were on track. So what has gone wrong?

After winning the opening two rounds, the spine crumbled, and with it a lot of confidence and flair. At full-forward, Gehrig, at 32 and with arthritic hands and no solid summer behind him, found he could hardly move. His opponents ran him off and his solitary tackle from five games says it all.

At centre half-forward, Riewoldt hasn't hit his best. In recent weeks, a mountain of tape has covered every limb. He needs to cover more ground. Run from half-back to goal square, rather than be stuck at half-forward.

The captain says he is happy with his efforts. His courage could never be questioned, but does Riewoldt know that in eight games this year, he has laid only four tackles? That puts him at No. 27 on his team's tackling list.

In the ruck, King and Gardiner are just going. Both have had injury setbacks, but it is time they rewarded the faith shown in them. The team's best tagger, Steven Baker, has been limited to only two games through suspension and injury. His pace, aggression and will should lift a battling midfield.

The loss of Maguire for the season has hurt. Broken bones in his foot limited the centre half-back to 10 games last year and only four in 2008. With Maguire pencilled in as a key defender, lots of creative runners could be positioned around him. Not now.

And at full-back, veteran Hudghton is really struggling. He is getting old and cranky. At least twice this season, he has allowed his frustrations to get the better of him, and he has demonstratively blasted his own teammates for not doing a job on his opponent. It is a belittling, selfish attitude that wrecks team spirit. His five tackles in eight games are also food for thought.

Watching the Saints play, you get the feeling they don't spend everything they have got. Hayes and veteran Robert Harvey leave the field exhausted. Most of the others don't. I felt they hadn't played bold play-on football, but the stats indicate they are on the right track. Most likely, we simply rated Justin Koschitzke, Leigh Montagna, Nick Dal Santo and the Clarke brothers to be better than they actually are.

President Westaway said this week it is time to rebuild. The captain disputed this, saying the list is good enough to win a flag. The next month will tell. If the captain and his mates don't pull their finger out and bend their backs, then the president will be proven correct. And as for the coach, I thought he was the right man for the job 18 months ago. Now, in the club's current predicament, I'm even more convinced.