VENUE: MCG, 7.30pm

THE BOOKIES: Collingwood $2.02, Sydney $1.74. (TAB)

HEAD TO HEAD: This year: Round 12 - Collingwood 10.16 (76) d Sydney 8.9 (57); Round 21 - Collingwood 15.11 (101) d Sydney 11.10 (76). All-time: Collingwood 130, Swans 79, drawn 1. Finals: Collingwood 7, Swans 6. Last final: 1945 second semi-final, South Melbourne 13.10 (88) d Collingwood 11.11 (77).

GAME STYLECollingwood: Play one-on-one football and do well when getting the ball quickly into the attacking 50, where Anthony Rocca and Travis Cloke are capable of taking contested marks. Try to compensate for lack of pace in the midfield with constant pre-planned rotations.

Sydney: Like to create stoppages where their strong ruckmen and bash-and-crash midfielders usually dominate. Get numbers into the opposition attack to create space for their defenders to run the ball out of defence. Often control tempo of the game.

KEY MATCH-UPSAdam Goodes v Dane Swan: The Magpies rolled the dice and lost last time trialling young defender Harry O'Brien on the brilliant Swans midfielder. But although Goodes won that battle easily, the Pies won the war. Expect them to go with a more seasoned opponent this time, with Swan one possibility.

Lewis Roberts-Thomson v Anthony Rocca (below): If the Hyphenator can handle Rocca, Craig Bolton (Travis Cloke) and Leo Barry (Sean Rusling) can be assigned to the Pies' other tall targets. But expect some quick swaps if any of the Collingwood talls get off the leash.

Brett Kirk v Scott Burns: Kirk has had another brilliant season in the heart of the Swans midfield and can expect an array of opponents as Collingwood rotates their on-ballers. Burns is from the same mould - tough, fair, uncompromising.

Michael O'Loughlin v Tyson Goldsack: Classic match of experience versus youth. Collingwood will back the athletic youngster again but, having returned to form, O'Loughlin should get more supply than last time.

WILD CARDSThe exciting youngster wins his own ball, has a big leap and can do some damage around goal.

Collingwood: Dale Thomas.

Sydney: Nick Malceski. The All-Australian nominee was given a more attacking role last week after a few quiet performances in which he had been drawn out of the play by the opposition.

HOW IT WILL BE WONExpect Sydney to come out firing early attempting to build a lead they can nurse and take the crowd out of the game. Collingwood match up well on the Swans because their relatively slow midfield doesn't mind playing tight and their tall forwards are dangerous. However, the Swans' ability to create intense midfield pressure, finals experience and the addition of some seasoned defenders should tip the balance their way.
Sydney by 16 points.