THERE'S a lot of old football maxims that have been made anachronisms, but few as comprehensively as that old chestnut about players in good teams robbing each other of Brownlow Medal votes.

While the Brownlow remains football's highest individual honour, in the modern era it has also become a fail-safe guide to team success.

A point never likely to be underlined more effectively than this evening. Geelong has dominated 2008, with 21 wins from 22 home-and-away season outings. And the Cats appear likely to dominate tonight's count just as completely.

A Geelong Brownlow trifecta, yet another potential piece of history for this machine of a football team, is a distinct possibility. Gary Ablett and Jimmy Bartel are first and second favourites, Joel Corey equal fourth, and Joel Selwood equal eighth in the betting.

If the Cats are indeed robbed, it won't be along the lines of Robin Hood, more like stealing from the rich to give to the equally rich.

Certainly, a record lays waiting to be broken. Essendon holds the title of most votes polled in a count by any team, 116 of a possible 132 in 2000, when the Bombers dropped just one game.

Geelong is second on that list, having polled 106 votes last year, when it lost four games. With three more comprehensive victories this season, who is to say the Cats couldn't poll more than 120?

One thing seems certain. If you're a good player in an ordinary team, you might as well not bother turning up to the count. Hawthorn's Shane Crawford, in 1999, was the last Brownlow winner to hail from a side that didn't at least make the finals.

Not good news for Carlton skipper and All-Australian team captain Chris Judd's hopes of winning a second medal, despite his status as sixth favourite at $14 and his proven vote-getting abilities.

In fact, even getting into the finals arguably isn't enough any more to give a player decent Brownlow prospects. No fewer than seven of the past 10 winners have had no less than a grand final to appear in the Saturday after earning their gong. That's a remarkable turnaround even from the 1990s, when just two of 11 winners were due to appear in the grand final five days later.

Surely a sign that in an increasingly saturated football market, the best players in the best teams draw more attention than they ever did — attention that clearly registers, even sub-consciously, in the minds of the umpires awarding the votes.

Ablett has been the leading fancy nearly all year and remains so despite having missed four games. Not surprising considering his Rolls Royce-like skills, particularly in close with handball, right under the umpires' noses.

An average 28 disposals, and 11 contested possessions, third-highest in the competition, ensures he's not only in view of the umpires when he gives the ball off seamlessly, but when he wins the tough balls in close as well.

Perhaps his stellar form was part of the reason another outstanding year from last season's winner Bartel seemed to almost slip under the radar for a while.

It didn't take the punters too long to cotton on, though. Logic dictates Bartel is a big chance to win successive medals exactly a decade after Robert Harvey did so for St Kilda.

Like Ablett, he's averaged 28 disposals a game. That's up even on his figures last year. Bartel has had plenty of clearance wins as well, is a great mark for his size, a trait hard for anyone to miss, and now, of course, is qualified to fulfil a Brownlow adage that does seem to remain true — once a vote-winner always a vote-winner.

Even the notoriously inconspicuous but very effective Corey seems to get more attention these days, much to the modest star's continued embarrassment. A win by "Smithy" would be very popular, but probably feature one of the shorter acceptance speeches.

If anyone beyond Skilled Stadium is going to win tonight, it surely must be Brent Harvey, though the North Melbourne little man believes his season to have been more consistent without necessarily featuring too many absolute highs.

Those who have seen him in action would beg to differ, but if evenness of performance over the spectacular costs him some important "three" votes, so, inevitably, will the Kangaroos' nine losses.

Same goes for St Kilda's Nick Riewoldt, Judd and Western Bulldog Adam Cooney. It's unfair, given their brilliance has often kept their teams close enough to win games they ultimately still lost, but in the modern Brownlow Medal, that's the way it is. When it comes to who gets to have "Charlie" draped around their neck, winners are winners.

THE AGE EXPERTS SELECT

GREG BAUM1 G Ablett (Geel)

2 M Richardson (Rich)

3 J Bartel (Geel)

MARTIN BLAKE1 J Corey (Geel)

2 C Judd (Carl)

3 G Ablett (Geel)

ROHAN CONNOLLY1 G Ablett (Geel)

2 B Harvey (NM)

3 J Bartel (Geel)

MICHAEL GLEESON1 B Harvey (NM)

2 J Bartel (Geel)

3 N Riewoldt (St K)

PETER HANLON1 J Bartel (Geel)

2 G Ablett (Geel)

3 J Selwood (Geel)

LEN JOHNSON1 B Harvey (NM)

2 G Ablett (Geel)

3 M Pavlich (Frem)

LYALL JOHNSON1 J Bartel (Geel)

2 G Ablett (Geel)

3 B Harvey (NM)

SAMANTHA LANE1 J Bartel (Geel)

2 S Black (Bris L)

3 G Ablett (Geel)

GEOFF McCLURE1 B Harvey (NM)

2 G Ablett (Geel)

3 M Richardson (Rich)

JAKE NIALL1 G Ablett (Geel)

2 J Bartel (Geel)

3 J Corey (Geel)

EMMA QUAYLE1 J Bartel (Geel)

2 C Judd (Carl)

3 G Ablett (Geel)

NICK SHERIDAN1 G Ablett (Geel)

2 B Harvey (NM)

3 J Bartel (Geel)

CAROLINE WILSON1 J Bartel (Geel)

2 C Judd (Carl)

3 G Ablett (Geel)

THE BETTING

$2.40 Gary Ablett (Geel)

$3.50 Jimmy Bartel (Geel)

$4.40 Brent Harvey (NM)

$13 Joel Corey (Geel); Nick Riewoldt (StK)

$14 Chris Judd (Carl)

$15 Adam Cooney (WB)

$23 Simon Black (Bris); Matthew Richardson (Rich); Joel Selwood (Geel)

$41 Dane Swan (Coll)

$71 Matthew Pavlich (Fre)

$126 Chance Bateman (Haw), Brett Kirk (Syd); Scott Thompson (Adel)

TAB Sportsbet